False dichotomy: Data-driven vs. gut-feel
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Smart decision-making is more complicated than becoming ‘data-driven’, whatever that means exactly. We know people can make better decisions if they consider relevant evidence, and that process is getting easier. But too often tech enthusiasts dismiss people’s decisions as based on gut feel, as if data will save us from ourselves. Let’s put an end to […]

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Don’t show me the evidence. Show me how you weighed the evidence.
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Sometimes we fool ourselves into thinking that if people just had access to all the relevant data, then the right decision – and better outcomes – would surely follow. Of course we know that’s not the case. A number of things block a clear path from evidence to decision to outcome. Evidence can’t speak for […]

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Choices, policy, and evidence-based investment.
bad arguments

1. Bad Arguments → Bad Choices Great news. There will be a follow-on to the excellent Bad Arguments book by @alialmossawi. The book of Bad Choices will be released this April by major publishers. You can preorder now. 2. Evidence-based decisions → Effective policy outcomes The conservative think tank, Heritage Foundation, is advocating for evidence-based […]

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10 Years After Ioannidis, speedy decision habits, and the peril of whether or not.

1. Much has happened since Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, the much-discussed PLOS essay by John P. A. Ioannidis offering evidence that “false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims….” Why are so many findings never replicated? Ioannidis listed study power and bias, the number of […]

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How women decide, and Chief Cognitive Officers.
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1. Do we judge women’s decisions differently? Cognitive psychologist Therese Huston’s book is How Women Decide: What’s True, What’s Not, and What Strategies Spark the Best Choices. It may sound unscientific to suggest there’s a particular way that several billion people make decisions, but the author doesn’t seem nonchalant about drawing specific conclusions. The book […]

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